Sunday, July 20

Equity Markets - whats ahead ?

Well I know thats a similar title as the previous post.... but just didnt want the previous one to get lengthier.

We have a come a long way from 130's to 13000's from the 80's till date. That's a 1300 times increase in 20 years. Thats a 26% CAGR in-spite of the fall from 20,873 (8th jan'08) to 13,635 (18th July'08).

Mr Amitabh Chakraborty's (President, Equities, Religare Securities; CFA; FRM) views on the markets are as follows (extracts):

  • Limited downside from now.
  • Sensex to be in the range of 10500 to 14500 this year
  • There is a slow down of growth but not de-growth
  • Estimate sales grwoth is 29% while estimated PAT growth is 18%
  • Capital Goods sector looks good. the Banks look sluggish but may still come out surprisingly well.
  • RBI should ease the rates by the year end.
  • Oil should trade in the range of $100-110 per barrel.
  • FED should hike rates by december leading to money flow from commodities to Equities.
  • Political condition should be OK and the Government should prevail.
  • Government is expected to go for Non Regulatory reforms (where no parliamentary approval is needed) till the next elections. This may lead to a rally in PSUs in the 2nd half of the year.
  • Monsoons are good (except for Moong dal)
  • Markets are oversold and should bounce back.

However, there were a few who, though not explicitly negative on the markets, showed some concerns like Mr Rajiv Anand from IDFC Mutual Fund. He believes that INFLATION should remain in double digits till 31st March.

So, it is advised that markets should return to moderate levels and investors should go shopping for long term assets. Its a SALE.

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